Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Indiana

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Indiana in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Indiana in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 82.7% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.744) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.083).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.4704 6.12%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.4953 -1.53%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1931 -2.98%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0880 -0.69%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0556 -3.33%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0489 0.40%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0111 -0.26%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.1804 1.55%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0019 -0.02%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0111 0.06%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0107 -0.13%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.5248 -6.60%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.1515 -1.85%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0440 0.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0761 -0.59%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0814 1.40%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0245 -0.35%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.2808 5.51%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0661 0.84%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0583 -1.06%
Veteran 0.2901 0.1006 2.92%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0072 -0.02%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.0898 -0.85%
Low Income 0.0081 0.3621 0.29%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0269 -0.14%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0910 1.41%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0047 -0.09%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.7647 14.45%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0967 0.15%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.2419 -0.36%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0212 0.30%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.1640 1.02%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0089 0.44%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0035 -0.02%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0170 -0.03%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0016 0.01%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.9398 2.07%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 108.0000 -1.98%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0070 1.48%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0470 4.05%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.1772 3.36%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0115 -6.13%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0443 -21.57%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1127 42.34%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2259 18.60%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1028 -9.17%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0291 13.16%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0425 9.41%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0347 2.37%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,927 for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41327) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34400).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.4655 -$1,323
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5043 -$435
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1925 -$605
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0813 -$430
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0436 -$264
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0469 $11
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0114 -$50
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.1781 -$414
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0021 -$13
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0100 -$27
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0103 $72
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.5270 $191
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.1534 $127
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0442 -$59
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0777 $438
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0831 $337
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0247 $211
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.3094 $299
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0681 $247
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0441 -$44
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0952 -$128
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0063 -$28
Single Parent 145.7630 0.0913 $13
Low Income -332.4067 0.3435 -$114
Homeless -446.4262 0.0234 -$10
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0802 $161
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0048 -$9
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.8034 $649
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 6316.1200 $2,307
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0777 $156
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.2387 $164
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0210 -$54
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.1675 $153
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0097 $147
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0036 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0117 -$69
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0016 $1
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.9433 -$194
Median Days in Program 3.2489 106.0000 $344
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0070 $168
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0470 $1,519
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.1772 $6,953
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0115 -$554
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0443 $181
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1127 $10,902
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2259 $12,685
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1028 $5,928
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0291 $313
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0425 $1,686
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0347 -$212

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 56.3% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.457) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.895).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.5372 -19.42%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5427 28.32%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1460 -1.03%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0478 -4.77%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0196 5.72%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0587 -8.49%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0074 1.57%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.2420 -13.72%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0138 1.18%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0189 3.74%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.5103 -6.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.1922 -3.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0597 0.44%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0690 -5.90%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0549 -1.10%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0090 1.65%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.4220 15.39%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.1999 -6.09%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0562 -1.47%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0504 1.26%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0064 0.57%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.1563 3.34%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1120 8.75%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.7449 -0.09%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.1229 0.80%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0112 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.3110 -4.03%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0170 0.84%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0019 -0.05%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.8867 6.49%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 161.0000 5.71%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 77.0000 -1.88%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.2689 -0.23%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0070 6.99%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0470 41.97%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.1772 214.86%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0115 -50.38%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0443 140.60%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1127 85.36%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2259 224.25%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1028 26.53%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0291 95.51%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0425 -0.61%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0347 -47.09%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 80.5% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.701) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.506).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.4804 2.86%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4057 0.77%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2897 -0.49%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1513 1.60%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1219 -2.32%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0202 0.24%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0089 -0.26%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0884 -0.32%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0002 0.02%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0083 -0.08%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0054 -0.11%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.4238 -1.10%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1532 -2.98%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0364 -0.65%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0993 -0.90%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1467 -2.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0483 -0.58%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0594 0.63%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0244 -0.06%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0427 -0.22%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0997 0.06%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0048 -0.12%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0422 0.19%
Low Income -0.0518 0.1411 -0.73%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0074 0.02%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0253 0.95%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0057 -0.13%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.9621 10.88%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0226 0.13%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.7701 1.60%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0137 0.10%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.0533 0.26%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0015 -0.08%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0017 -0.02%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0054 0.44%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0017 -0.09%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.9917 -5.08%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 98.0000 0.08%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0070 -1.41%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0470 -2.19%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.1772 -30.24%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0115 -11.38%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0443 -27.81%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1127 -40.59%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2259 -45.05%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1028 -29.31%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0291 8.84%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0425 5.23%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0347 1.43%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $8,098 for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 37465) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-29367).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4685 -$891
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4218 $471
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2945 -$37
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1490 -$317
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0999 -$249
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0203 -$17
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0079 -$37
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0881 -$135
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0003 -$1
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0092 -$33
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0063 -$23
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4226 -$592
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1497 -$285
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0359 $3
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.1020 $156
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1487 $174
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0504 $109
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0609 $104
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0245 $93
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0356 $10
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0999 $144
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0050 -$15
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0435 -$34
Low Income -538.7097 0.1381 -$74
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0076 $60
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0227 $41
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0058 $1
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.9670 $20
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 9290.2500 $852
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0192 $26
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.7643 $53
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0129 -$32
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.0580 $10
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0018 $12
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0013 $1
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0053 -$11
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0016 -$7
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.9908 -$400
Median Days in Program 2.2222 94.0000 $209
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0070 -$190
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0470 $1,723
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.1772 $8,362
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0115 -$2,992
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0443 $3,807
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1127 $10,706
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2259 $11,558
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1028 $4,521
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0291 -$132
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0425 $947
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0347 -$201

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 50.6% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.371) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.865).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5169 -7.80%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5169 -3.39%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2725 6.58%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1134 5.19%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0530 4.85%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0265 -1.76%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0074 -0.39%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.1311 -4.32%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0088 2.34%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0044 0.02%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.4124 -7.92%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2253 -5.37%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0427 -1.11%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1001 2.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.0943 -1.06%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0103 -0.44%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0884 -0.19%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0987 -2.61%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0295 -4.27%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0810 -7.48%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0059 0.27%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.1060 3.91%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0309 1.45%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.9219 2.64%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0412 1.60%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0177 0.63%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.1915 -1.18%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0015 -0.06%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.9912 -9.54%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 281.5000 -9.05%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 167.0000 -4.57%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1635 2.65%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0070 -5.64%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0470 20.91%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.1772 174.65%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0115 -67.48%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0443 54.06%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1127 180.90%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2259 161.80%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1028 15.54%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0291 189.79%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0425 -12.10%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0347 -37.60%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 78.4% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.037) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.822).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5481 3.26%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0058 0.07%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.3354 -4.82%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.2752 -5.65%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1814 0.19%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.0920 -0.58%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0065 0.13%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.2770 -1.15%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0025 -0.13%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0151 -0.51%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0346 0.52%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.3163 2.19%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0126 -0.39%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0043 0.50%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0050 0.25%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.2896 7.96%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.3044 1.08%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.1338 -0.63%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0144 -0.20%
Low Income 0.0375 0.7310 2.74%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0209 -0.42%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0844 0.54%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0123 -0.01%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2175 -1.56%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.5557 1.94%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.1439 -1.25%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0162 -0.07%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.4937 2.18%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0004 0.03%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0040 -0.06%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0151 0.11%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0065 -0.02%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0123 0.05%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.3747 0.02%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.8395 1.25%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 232.0000 -0.93%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0070 -4.74%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0470 -8.84%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.1772 -24.10%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0115 -8.39%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0443 -9.47%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1127 -28.80%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2259 0.56%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1028 -4.05%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0291 -31.36%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0425 14.02%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0347 -5.17%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,341 for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14786) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-11445).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5498 -$1,032.22
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0052 -$0.48
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.3168 -$414.73
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.2749 -$293.17
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.1939 $125.94
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.0972 $185.97
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0048 $3.10
Race: Black -886.3703 0.2625 -$232.68
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0019 -$6.46
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0143 -$2.64
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0348 $32.45
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.3478 $481.31
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0152 -$12.63
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0043 $0.74
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0057 $38.15
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.3330 $204.40
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.2868 $156.65
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.1296 -$64.17
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0157 $38.62
Low Income -305.7985 0.7156 -$218.82
Homeless 983.9044 0.0191 $18.75
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0819 -$105.27
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0105 $10.58
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2234 $190.93
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.5479 -$155.31
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.1186 -$74.77
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0181 -$8.37
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.4983 $80.32
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0048 -$0.88
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0133 -$22.13
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0062 -$3.34
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0129 $1.34
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.3988 -$1.73
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.8456 -$23.57
Median Days in Program 0.5942 228.5000 $135.77
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0070 -$22.15
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0470 $516.75
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.1772 $3,820.77
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0115 -$637.57
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0443 $1,985.75
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1127 $1,602.10
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2259 $4,601.37
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1028 $728.60
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0291 $1,657.03
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0425 $1,852.01
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0347 -$350.55

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 44.1% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.476) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.035).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5549 -15.31%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0072 -0.59%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.5400 -48.74%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.2361 -16.52%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1003 -16.45%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.1388 -0.24%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0103 -0.02%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.2765 0.12%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0153 -0.24%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0500 9.86%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.1529 -4.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0107 1.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0023 -0.15%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0027 0.51%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.5534 1.22%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.7769 15.35%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0023 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.4878 -3.48%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0019 0.05%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0145 0.80%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0179 -1.59%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.6278 -3.16%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 264.0000 -8.61%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.1011 -3.48%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0070 5.33%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0470 45.00%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.1772 103.34%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0115 -49.21%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0443 -63.13%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1127 163.12%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2259 159.54%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1028 64.75%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0291 147.72%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0425 -31.20%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0347 -4.05%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 76.7% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.267) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.5).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4350 3.48%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4470 4.85%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2185 -1.88%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1015 -0.07%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.0936 -0.59%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0261 0.61%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0087 -0.21%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.1837 -2.96%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0014 0.14%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0082 -0.25%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0082 0.20%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.4608 -0.79%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1690 0.65%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0241 -0.10%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0747 2.61%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1017 -6.88%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0313 -1.64%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1732 1.50%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0463 -0.42%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0385 -1.37%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0702 1.52%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0014 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0304 0.62%
Low Income 0.0926 0.1019 0.94%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0123 -0.08%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0282 0.52%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0022 -0.05%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.8678 27.54%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0243 -0.37%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.5647 -2.17%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0078 -0.07%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0373 -0.38%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0011 -1.09%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0006 -0.01%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0046 0.50%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0007 -0.04%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 71.0000 -1.96%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0070 1.18%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0470 7.24%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.1772 17.95%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0115 -0.53%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0443 13.14%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1127 10.63%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2259 28.98%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1028 6.08%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0291 11.34%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0425 7.23%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0347 1.20%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,723 for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40867) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34144).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4290 -$1,190
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4648 $710
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2209 $49
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0967 $167
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0710 $283
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0270 $41
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0079 -$10
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.1856 -$543
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0015 -$4
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0082 -$46
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0082 $88
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.4693 -$828
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1691 -$368
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0248 -$54
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0766 $161
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1024 $7
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0304 -$152
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1978 $90
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0452 -$52
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0300 -$153
Veteran -913.8967 0.0659 -$60
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0014 $2
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0320 $21
Low Income 634.4633 0.0988 $63
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0104 -$36
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0262 $50
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0019 -$20
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.9008 -$198
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 7641.4000 $1,996
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0197 $15
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.5539 $252
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0076 $2
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0395 -$25
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0013 -$29
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0007 -$1
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0034 $36
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0006 $1
Median Days in Program 0.8717 68.0000 $59
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0070 $259
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0470 $2,010
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.1772 $8,453
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0115 $130
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0443 $2,775
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1127 $7,649
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2259 $11,630
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1028 $4,422
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0291 $1,210
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0425 $2,183
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0347 -$177

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x